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Report available on the Internet
| Report available on the Internet published April 2, 2003 By Matt Hall By going to the Agricultural Information Network site you can take a look at what Rodney Todd, crop production specialist for Oregon State University's Klamath County Extension Service, likes to call "the big picture" of the agricultural economy of Klamath County. "I would encourage you to look at this 'big picture' front page," said Todd of the pie chart for the 2002 Agricultural Commodity Sales for Klamath County. To examine the data available on the Internet site select from the scroll menu that includes county, district, and state reports; commodity reports; acreage reports; and sales reports. Then chose the information that you are interested in. But interpreting the data, warns Todd, can be difficult and misleading. Todd knows these facts well. Compiling and utilizing this data is a big part of his job. "Trying to extract any meaningful conclusion from the detail is fraught with a little more peril," he said with a gesture at his computer monitor which displayed figures from the crop summary Web site. "You start saying 'OK, total grains this, total hay that -- the figures are good -- but they are also a bit in flux due to the United States Department of Agriculture adjustment that will be taking place. Plus, I'm not sure that any policy-level picture emerges by looking at the detail." But to illustrate his point, Todd chose a commodity at random, and examined the figures concerning it over the past year. "Wheat for example," said Todd. "If we were to look at wheat and try to draw some conclusion. "One thing I know about the wheat figures is there's a significant margin of error in those numbers. In aggregate they come up pretty good, particularly after we've been through the United States Department of Agriculture's shrink-and-stretch adjustment process. "But if you jump on preliminary figures and said 'Well, this proves that wheat is down, so it's a dying crop.' I think that you'd be drawing conclusions beyond what the data might support. "It could be merely a reflection of changes. Farm programs, correct marketing considerations, any number of minor factors, year-to-year, can result in a fairly substantial shift in either acres, production, or value. It's hard to ferret out exactly why. "While you can't tell what happened here, there is some detail behind the scenes, fresh from a production season that helps to explain the data," he concluded. |
published April 2, 2003
By Matt Hall
By going to the Agricultural Information Network site you can take a look at what Rodney Todd, crop production specialist for Oregon State University's Klamath County Extension Service, likes to call "the big picture" of the agricultural economy of Klamath County.
"I would encourage you to look at this 'big picture' front page," said Todd of the pie chart for the 2002 Agricultural Commodity Sales for Klamath County.
To examine the data available on the Internet site select from the scroll menu that includes county, district, and state reports; commodity reports; acreage reports; and sales reports. Then chose the information that you are interested in.
But interpreting the data, warns Todd, can be difficult and misleading. Todd knows these facts well. Compiling and utilizing this data is a big part of his job.
"Trying to extract any meaningful conclusion from the detail is fraught with a little more peril," he said with a gesture at his computer monitor which displayed figures from the crop summary Web site.
"You start saying 'OK, total grains this, total hay that - the figures are good - but they are also a bit in flux due to the United States Department of Agriculture adjustment that will be taking place. Plus, I'm not sure that any policy-level picture emerges by looking at the detail."
But to illustrate his point, Todd chose a commodity at random, and examined the figures concerning it over the past year.
"Wheat for example," said Todd. "If we were to look at wheat and try to draw some conclusion.
"One thing I know about the wheat figures is there's a significant margin of error in those numbers. In aggregate they come up pretty good, particularly after we've been through the United States Department of Agriculture's shrink-and-stretch adjustment process.
"But if you jump on preliminary figures and said 'Well, this proves that wheat is down, so it's a dying crop.' I think that you'd be drawing conclusions beyond what the data might support.
"It could be merely a reflection of changes. Farm programs, correct marketing considerations, any number of minor factors, year-to-year, can result in a fairly substantial shift in either acres, production, or value. It's hard to ferret out exactly why.
"While you can't tell what happened here, there is some detail behind the scenes, fresh from a production season that helps to explain the data," he concluded.
By Matt Hall
By going to the Agricultural Information Network site you can take a look at what Rodney Todd, crop production specialist for Oregon State University's Klamath County Extension Service, likes to call "the big picture" of the agricultural economy of Klamath County.
"I would encourage you to look at this 'big picture' front page," said Todd of the pie chart for the 2002 Agricultural Commodity Sales for Klamath County.
To examine the data available on the Internet site select from the scroll menu that includes county, district, and state reports; commodity reports; acreage reports; and sales reports. Then chose the information that you are interested in.
But interpreting the data, warns Todd, can be difficult and misleading. Todd knows these facts well. Compiling and utilizing this data is a big part of his job.
"Trying to extract any meaningful conclusion from the detail is fraught with a little more peril," he said with a gesture at his computer monitor which displayed figures from the crop summary Web site.
"You start saying 'OK, total grains this, total hay that - the figures are good - but they are also a bit in flux due to the United States Department of Agriculture adjustment that will be taking place. Plus, I'm not sure that any policy-level picture emerges by looking at the detail."
But to illustrate his point, Todd chose a commodity at random, and examined the figures concerning it over the past year.
"Wheat for example," said Todd. "If we were to look at wheat and try to draw some conclusion.
"One thing I know about the wheat figures is there's a significant margin of error in those numbers. In aggregate they come up pretty good, particularly after we've been through the United States Department of Agriculture's shrink-and-stretch adjustment process.
"But if you jump on preliminary figures and said 'Well, this proves that wheat is down, so it's a dying crop.' I think that you'd be drawing conclusions beyond what the data might support.
"It could be merely a reflection of changes. Farm programs, correct marketing considerations, any number of minor factors, year-to-year, can result in a fairly substantial shift in either acres, production, or value. It's hard to ferret out exactly why.
"While you can't tell what happened here, there is some detail behind the scenes, fresh from a production season that helps to explain the data," he concluded.
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