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Streamflow forecast dry, grim
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| A relatively thin coat of snow covers the heights of Mount McLoughlin Wednesday, but the mountain snowpack throughout Klamath and Lake counties is extremely light, raising the prospect of water shortages this summer. |
Irrigators hope for more snow
By DYLAN DARLING
H&N Staff Writer
Unless the weather changes drastically, less water than average will be flowing into Upper Klamath Lake this spring.
Even less will be headed into Gerber Reservoir and Clear Lake.
These are the predictions of the latest streamflow forecasts released by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, said Jon Lea, hydrologist for the service's Snow Survey Office in Portland.
But local irrigators aren't worrying yet. They are waiting to see what type of weather February has in store and how the Bureau of Reclamation will divvy water up when it releases its annual operation plan.
"We need the plan to see how they will use the numbers, then we can start to formulate our plan," said Dave Solem, manager of the Klamath Irrigation District.
The Bureau's plan is based in part on the streamflow forecasts, and should be out in April.
Upper Klamath Lake's net inflow should be 580,000 acre-feet, or 74 percent of average, from February through July, according to the service.
A separate forecast for the months April through September predicts streamflows into the lake at 74 percent of average. A month ago, before a warm January caused the mountain snowpack to shrivel, the service predicted an inflow of 87 percent of average for the same time period.
Sprague River's flow should be 23,000 acre-feet, or 71 percent of average from February to July, Lea said. Williamson River should yield 39,000 acre-feet, or 75 percent of average.
The forecasts for Gerber Reservoir and Clear Lake are much more grim.
Inflow into Gerber Reservoir should be 16,500 acre-feet, or 35 percent of average, from February through July, Lea said. Clear Lake should get 47,000 acre-feet, or 45 percent of average, during the same time period.
Forecasts were not yet available for streamflows in Lake County.
The snowpack in Lake County, at 54 percent of average, is worse than it is in Klamath.
To create the forecast, agency offices look at snowpack and a number of other variables, including winter and fall precipitation, winter streamflow and the effects of El Nino, Lea said. What variables are taken into account vary from office to office.
"Snowpack is part of the puzzle, but it is not all of it," Lea said.
The snowpack in Klamath County is 67 percent of average, he said.
"So most of the forecast being low like this is on account of there being no snow in the mountains," he said.
Usually 60 to 70 percent of a winter's snow has fallen by Feb. 1, Lea said.
This year could be nearly as dry as 2001, when water shortages combined with conservation requirements to protect fish caused a shutdown of the Klamath Reclamation Project.
"2001 for the most part was a drier year, but we are rapidly coming to those points this year," he said.
Solem said it's still early, and no one knows what the next couple of months will really be like.
"I can't even speculate at this point in time," he said.
Irrigation in the Klamath District typically starts in late march or early April.
Water users in the Horsefly Irrigation District, who rely on Gerber Reservoir and Clear Lake, also are waiting to see what will happen.
If the predictions hold, irrigators in the district would have to get creative with the water they use, said Bruce McCoy, manager of the Horsefly District. To get back on track before the start of the irrigation season, he said his district would need to double the amount of storage it has now.
While that might seem like a tall task for mother nature, anything can happen with Southern Oregon weather, McCoy said.
"You never can count on the weather in this part of the country," he said. "I've been here for 13 years and there aren't any of them that were the same."
Reporter Dylan Darling covers natural resources. He can be reached at 885-4471, (800) 275-0982, or by e-mail at ddarling@heraldandnews.com.
By DYLAN DARLING
H&N Staff Writer
Unless the weather changes drastically, less water than average will be flowing into Upper Klamath Lake this spring.
Even less will be headed into Gerber Reservoir and Clear Lake.
These are the predictions of the latest streamflow forecasts released by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, said Jon Lea, hydrologist for the service's Snow Survey Office in Portland.
But local irrigators aren't worrying yet. They are waiting to see what type of weather February has in store and how the Bureau of Reclamation will divvy water up when it releases its annual operation plan.
"We need the plan to see how they will use the numbers, then we can start to formulate our plan," said Dave Solem, manager of the Klamath Irrigation District.
The Bureau's plan is based in part on the streamflow forecasts, and should be out in April.
Upper Klamath Lake's net inflow should be 580,000 acre-feet, or 74 percent of average, from February through July, according to the service.
A separate forecast for the months April through September predicts streamflows into the lake at 74 percent of average. A month ago, before a warm January caused the mountain snowpack to shrivel, the service predicted an inflow of 87 percent of average for the same time period.
Sprague River's flow should be 23,000 acre-feet, or 71 percent of average from February to July, Lea said. Williamson River should yield 39,000 acre-feet, or 75 percent of average.
The forecasts for Gerber Reservoir and Clear Lake are much more grim.
Inflow into Gerber Reservoir should be 16,500 acre-feet, or 35 percent of average, from February through July, Lea said. Clear Lake should get 47,000 acre-feet, or 45 percent of average, during the same time period.
Forecasts were not yet available for streamflows in Lake County.
The snowpack in Lake County, at 54 percent of average, is worse than it is in Klamath.
To create the forecast, agency offices look at snowpack and a number of other variables, including winter and fall precipitation, winter streamflow and the effects of El Nino, Lea said. What variables are taken into account vary from office to office.
"Snowpack is part of the puzzle, but it is not all of it," Lea said.
The snowpack in Klamath County is 67 percent of average, he said.
"So most of the forecast being low like this is on account of there being no snow in the mountains," he said.
Usually 60 to 70 percent of a winter's snow has fallen by Feb. 1, Lea said.
This year could be nearly as dry as 2001, when water shortages combined with conservation requirements to protect fish caused a shutdown of the Klamath Reclamation Project.
"2001 for the most part was a drier year, but we are rapidly coming to those points this year," he said.
Solem said it's still early, and no one knows what the next couple of months will really be like.
"I can't even speculate at this point in time," he said.
Irrigation in the Klamath District typically starts in late march or early April.
Water users in the Horsefly Irrigation District, who rely on Gerber Reservoir and Clear Lake, also are waiting to see what will happen.
If the predictions hold, irrigators in the district would have to get creative with the water they use, said Bruce McCoy, manager of the Horsefly District. To get back on track before the start of the irrigation season, he said his district would need to double the amount of storage it has now.
While that might seem like a tall task for mother nature, anything can happen with Southern Oregon weather, McCoy said.
"You never can count on the weather in this part of the country," he said. "I've been here for 13 years and there aren't any of them that were the same."
Reporter Dylan Darling covers natural resources. He can be reached at 885-4471, (800) 275-0982, or by e-mail at ddarling@heraldandnews.com.
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| Low Basin streamflows predicted |
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